By Nigerian Political Science Association
The Nigerian public space is, at present, seized and populated by perspectives and viewpoints that have been shared on the Nigerien crisis after its condemnable latest coup d’etat in July, 2023. The current Chair of ECOWAS, who is also the president of Nigeria, President Tinubu, has given an indication of marching on to Niger to restore the ousted President Mohammed Bazoum after the expiration of the deadline given by ECOWAS to the coupists to vacate office. Indeed, a letter was transmitted by the president to the NASS in Nigeria to give effect to military intervention in checkmating the rise of unconstitutional change of government in the sub-region.
The point needs to be made at this point that an otherwise less significant event has now gained enhanced public attention by the different positions being shared on how to restore democracy in Niamey. We have the pro-military action and pro-diplomacy groups both competing for attention. There is also the angle of geopolitical considerations being played out in Niamey that has made the Sahelian State an unfolding event. The military take-over has shown the faces of the Great Powers and their permutations on the crisis.
The NPSA does not share in the optimism of a military action, for its potential to be an ill-wind that will not blow anyone any good. Rather, our view is that much as Nigeria is being seen as soldiering for democracy in Niger is in line with its democratic credentials on display in Cape Verde, The Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Togo and other places, we contend that the circumstances of the coup in Niamey in 2023 were quite different from other coups. In reacting to it, it requires a more painstaking effort at understanding the unhappy return of the military to governance in that country. Some issues are at stake.
Firstly, are the inherent contradictions in Liberal Democracy, which are indeed many and disappointing for the masses who had risen in the defence of democracy in the 1980s and 1990s. Secondly, the erroneous belief that only the route of liberal democracy was capable of giving better living conditions for the people, preached in the 1980s and 1990s, is increasingly being shattered by existential realities in African countries. Thirdly, we argue that the excruciating and grinding poverty, and the soaring unemployment levels, that are the reality in Africa today, are in a sharp contrast with the luxurious lifestyles of most of the continent’s democratic torchbearers. This scenario of affluence by a tiny minority of the population, as against the pool of downtrodden masses is, no doubt, making people to ask whether Africans have not been taken on a long cruise through the western sermons they received on democracy in the past.
Our Association then argues that if the phenomenon of coup making, which is generally believed to be motivated by PROFIT, is to be checked, there is the need to appreciate the fact that the kind of governance environment prevailing in Africa is, at the moment, inclement. It should be appraised and critical steps taken to redress the situation. For now, there is a deepening process of dis-empowerment of the generality of the citizens through liberal democracy that, we argue, has acquired its own peculiar African attributes, in addition to its traditional follies.
Unfortunate as the situation in Niger is, resorting to gunboat diplomacy on the matter would not be an ideal pattern of reacting to it, as it can escalate the tension in the country, while jeopardising the half-hearted efforts being made to galvanise support for integration in West Africa. We cannot ignore the possibility of an armed intervention in Niger to ignite a war which magnitude cannot be predicted at the moment. The country in the eyes of the storm is rich in notable mineral resources that has attracted the attention of the world powers. How far they will go on the issue is still at the level of conjecture.
The NPSA advises that Nigeria’s efforts should be focused on overcoming its too many domestic challenges, given the intricate relationship that exists between domestic and external environment of a nation state. A combination of strategies, all defined by the good elements in diplomacy, are what we think would serve Nigeria’s interest at this point in time. It is therefore, our recommendation to the Nigerian State in pushing for the reversal of the unconstitutional change of government in Niger and other countries in West Africa.
We are not in sync with those calling for a military intervention in Niger in aid of democracy. Our vote is for intensification of the diplomatic efforts, in restoring democracy in Niamey. We note that Nigeria itself has some democratic challenges as revealed in its last round of elections this year. Aspects of which are daily being discussed within and outside the country. Some issues arising from the elections are also undergoing judicial reviews. Democracy is evolutionary; it is better for it to evolve in order for it to be sustainable than being imposed from above.
