By Prof Hassan Saliu
Introduction
The 2027 general elections in Nigeria present yet another opportunity for the country to get its electoral process right. However, considerable scepticism persists, given candidates’ conduct and their parties’ disposition ahead of the anticipated elections.
While partisan groups have been preemptively announcing victory for each side of the electoral divide, this author aligns himself with cautious observers who contend that such actors are merely appropriating anticipated voter preferences to their advantage. This is understandable in a polity where the electorate has largely been reduced to spectators in the ritual of elections. Electoral victory will ultimately depend on steps yet to be taken to realistically woo the voters. In the meantime, twelve factors are likely to impact the round of elections and determine the winners.
An Analysis of the Factors
One, the performance index of incumbents and those seeking to install their successors: From developments on the political stage, those who have enjoyed the people’s mandate will be required to account for their stewardship. Although this will not be the sole determinant, it is reasonable to expect that a segment of the electorate will weigh it heavily before casting their votes.
Two, religion: It will be a factor, especially given the Muslim-Muslim ticket adopted by one of the major parties. In some constituencies, this may be inconsequential. It nonetheless remains a variable that could influence voter behaviour, given the religiosity increasingly evident in the public sphere.
Three, ethnicity: When the chips are down, many voters are likely to privilege ethnic considerations over competence or other criteria.
Four, party appeal and the promise of a better future: While Nigerian elections have not historically been about capacity to deliver, the prevailing socio-economic conditions, particularly the high cost of living, suggest that credible promises of improved welfare may sway some voters.
Five, the nature and quality of party campaigns: Any party with superior organisation and well-managed campaigns that directly address the myriad problems confronting the people is likely to gain traction with the electorate.
Six, the prospect of regional bloc voting in 2027: Some analysts have lent credence to this possibility, and indeed some candidates appear to be banking on sweeping the polls in their native geo-political zones to emerge victorious.
Seven, structural harvesting of votes: One party appears to be relying on a structural approach to mobilisation. Other parties seem to hope to convert prevailing discontent in the polity into electoral gain, without corresponding organisational effort. Both approaches will be tested at the polls.
Eight, the role and resilience of INEC: The Commission will face intense political pressure, which may undermine its plans if not managed effectively. The groundwork for such interference is already evident. INEC’s actions and inactions will directly affect the credibility of the elections.
Nine, security provisioning: The relative restraint observed during the last Osun election offers some optimism. However, if such restraint is not replicated across most constituencies during the general elections, security will remain a critical concern that can affect the outcome.
Ten, inducements in various forms: Notwithstanding extant legislation proscribing the use of money in elections, enforcement has been weak and challenging. It would therefore be unrealistic to discount money’s role in the 2027 elections. Where there is supply, there will be demand, and both will shape poll outcomes.
Eleven, global attention and external involvement: Nigeria’s elections have increasingly attracted international scrutiny. This was evident in 2015, when then-US President Barack Obama made a decisive broadcast on Nigeria’s elections. Today, both the ruling and opposition parties are courting external actors, with little regard for the implications. Some Nigerians are even looking up to the United States as an arbiter in the electoral context. The extent of external involvement will depend on how domestic actors conduct themselves. Meanwhile, the regime of external interference is already here.
Twelve, reports of observer missions and election monitors: Elections have become internationalised, such that the global community pays close attention to electoral processes worldwide. Hasty or reckless pronouncements on pre-election matters by observers could intensify external interest, with consequences that may be positive or negative for the parties involved.
Conclusion
This author concedes that other variables, such as local content, the level of political tolerance, defections, and other contextual peculiarities, may also affect the elections. The foregoing analysis, however, constitutes the most salient determinants that will decide the winners of the 2027 elections and, by extension, the legitimacy and acceptability of the outcomes.
The author is of the Department of Political Science, University of Ilorin in Nigeria
