By Barrister Okpeh Alleh Okpeh
It must be the normal thing since the Nigeria Air Force, (NAF) announced it but whether the announcement normalises it is likely to remain contentious. Commonsense would look at announcement of delivery of the war planes to the knowledge of the enemy to be problematic. And, therefore, possibly further proof of the view that Nigeria is a country where breaking the rules and the ‘rules’ of normalcy is an accepted means of getting attention. Viewed against this background, the interesting July 22nd, 2021 Reuters story about delivery of the first six of A-29 Super Tucano planes will add to the flurry of conspiracy theories already dodging the prosecution of the war against Boko Haram insurgents.
Perhaps, a crude survey of some of the conspiracy theories is warranted. There is the perceived conspiracy of the military in the Nigerian terrorism conundrum. It is seen to be the deadliest by those who subscribe to it and who consider it to be worst of the factors inhibiting the progress of the war on terror in the country. The suspected military fifth columnists could have religious, political and financial reasons for the act. There are many salacious stories on this. According to one, ground troops in one of the earliest insurrection at the front fired at a Commander for allegedly conspiring with the enemy terrorists and directing the soldiers along the line of harm. In that particular incident, one of the best hands among the soldiers, a Colonel, was reportedly killed along with others in the ambush that followed when the general insisted that they return to base at a particular time of the night, using a particular route. In their transit, they were accurately ambushed and eliminated. The surviving colleagues smelt rat and fired at the general for a kill when he came to them in the morning to shed crocodile tears. One may not dismiss some of these stuffs.
Some commanding officers as alleged by deserting soldiers and anonymous personnel are accused of withdrawing or ordering halt of fire at points where Boko Haram fighters appeared helpless or vulnerable in battle fields, allowing the fleeing terrorists to retreat to safety. No one may vouch for the truth of the allegations just as none would expect the army to open up to admission. But they are all inhibitions to the efforts of the state both in terms of morale, resources and the trust in a war situation.
There is this sore allegation too by villagers and kidnap victims, of helicopters coming to supply Boko Haram fighters with war arsenals, foods and other necessities in the acclaimed forests and one begins to wonder how a plane could fly in a country’s airspace without the knowledge of appropriate authorities, particularly in a highly militarized space typical of war zones. In one of such flights captured on video, it was alleged that the plane belongs to a former Head of State. This was denied by the general but it is unlikely that many believe the stuff more than they believe the general, especially are no official or independent investigation to unravel all of these allegations from Taraba to Benue, through Bornu and all other ‘axis of evil’ violence in the country. During the Biafran war, Ojukwu suspected some iota of 5th columnists in the army and he executed all of them. That might not be the best of solution today, but an honest system will have to show some element of deterrence to frighten the others. In our current situation, the suspects are elevated. One of the best Police investigators of crime in the country was eliminated on the orders of an army captain in Gombe when they had a notorious kidnaper suspect in their custody enroute Abuja. Till today, the military has not given any satisfactory account of its role and how the captain is currently being handled.
Conspiracy of a political nature is even suspected more than of the military and this cannot be better argued than the open admission by Goodluck Jonathan that he had several Boko Haram in his cabinet. At this time, there were none of the current incidents of kidnappings, abductions, banditry and herdsmen killings.
Away from that is the existence of people who believe that the current security situation in the country is all about spreading the military thinly across several fronts to limit their capacity and personnel strength, ignite food scarcity and hunger in the land to weaken the economy and arouse citizen strife but while also generating funding from kidnap ransoms. The last variable is connected to threatened external funding from ISIS and al-Qaeda. The current strike on schools across the country is equally suspected to be connected to a strategy of achieving the perceived objective of killing western education.
Recently, a trader in Kaduna admitted that, at the height of student kidnappings in Kaduna State, that he sold loaves of bread running into hundreds of thousands of Naira in a day. These are the food stuffs taken to Boko Haram kidnap and abduction enclaves for marginal feeding of inmates. The inference commonly drawn from this is how all else are no more than foot soldiers of Boko Haram since ransoms paid by victim of kidnappings, abductions and banditry ends in Zambisa Forest. The foot soldiers who kidnap and abduct are paid as labourers and the other levels of command with the main money ending up up with the hierarchy. In the interviews of arrested kidnappers, they tell us that, in ransom of tens of millions of Naira, they are given N50, 000 and at best a hundred thousand Naira. The terrorists have to buy more arms, feed the community and face logistics to continue the insurrection.
Explaining Boko Haram itself is no less complex, the most so being the notion that Boko Haram was useful as a political asset for the political elites when it was needed. When their usefulness was over, they needed to be discarded which was resisted, resulting in the need to eliminate them. The story of Boko Haram came to where the falcon no longer heard the falconer. But it was still useful for the future. So, it must not be extinguished completely, hence the lack of political will to exterminate the menace or bringing an end to the terror war. A large percentage of Nigerians believe that the entire insurgency and its sustenance is a product of both internal and external conspiracy, the worst coming from within. The Idomas have it that ‘ekoh noi mnigwu’a mno’kwu ‘kunu’ (the weevil that will kills the corn lives right inside the root).
Heavily drawn into the framework which sees conspiracies as the most disorganizing factor of Nigeria’s counter-insurgency is the Nigerian State itself. This “official conspiracy” shares the same trajectory with the endemic corruption in the administration of military and war budgets since the inception of the insurgency. In the Jonathan era, a whooping 2.1 billion dollar loan meant for the prosecution of the war was shared among the political class while the war raged. In this regime of APC, trillions of Naira both from loans and internal funds have been budgeted. Nothing suggests it has not all gone the old way if we read General Monguno’s lips well. This would tend to point to something like a system not interested in concluding the war. When the late COAS was invited by the National Assembly and asked to give details of military expenditure, he simply directed them to his predecessor for questioning. That response ended the matter because, again, as the Idoma would say, you don’t open the stomach of the elephant in the presence of children because it contains too many things, some abominable. In spite of all of these monies budgeted; we are told that the soldiers fight the war with the armaments bought by Yakubu Gowon in the 60s to prosecute the Biafran War. In spite of Zulum’s consistent call for the government to hire mercenaries or call for international support considering the deficiencies in our anti- terrorism outlay, none of these is obviously being considered as an option.
This understanding of other regional instrumentalism of militant groups brought up here: the boys are hired to stage a performance. Most times, and after a while, the ‘boys’ get beyond the line of instruction and at that time, the ‘god fathers’ become confused and wouldn’t know exactly what to do, having been caught between open loyalty to constituted authority and the non state actors built by them. At this point, they become fifth columnists from within and without, overtly or clandestinely, until it no longer suits their purpose. This was what played out when the system fell out with ‘Afghanistan’ in Bornu State and Yusuf and other Boko Haram leaders were killed, bringing the country to where it is now.
As a country where breaking the rules and the ‘rules’ of normalcy is an accepted means of getting attention, the regions tend to breed, sustain and preserve such formula as a means of getting to government but would stay far away from the epicenter as if the volcano is natural. That is how the likes of Avengers, MEND, IPOB, NADECO, MASOB etc and Boko Haram came to be. They were all, initially, products of the elites as a strategy of survival since, in Nigeria, the elites livelihood is heavily tied to closeness to seat of government.
At this rate, it can be no longer unfair concluding that Nigeria will always teach the world new tragedies. It is now teaching the strategy of how not to end a war on terror. After all, Ambassador Buratai has honestly told us that the war will last twenty years. It is now only nine years into the 20 – year projection, unless if his projection does not include the years already spent.
Dr. Alleh Okpeh Alleh Esq is an Abuja based analyst
