By Comrade Sanusi A. S. Maikudi
In the 21st century, the term VUCA, an acronym for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity, has become indispensable in understanding the nature of global governance, development, and strategic leadership. Coined by the U.S. Army War College in the late 1980s, VUCA captures the essence of a world where change is constant, disruptions are frequent, and predictable patterns are rare. While global systems have begun to integrate VUCA-thinking into governance and policy models, Nigeria’s social sciences remain largely underdeveloped and disconnected from this vital framework thus hindering national progress in the face of mounting challenges.
At its core, VUCA represents the unpredictable and rapidly shifting conditions under which modern governments, organizations, and societies operate. In governance, it undermines the effectiveness of rigid, linear decision-making models that are still prevalent in many parts of the world. Nations are now required to adopt agility, flexibility, and strategic foresight. For Nigeria, however, governance often remains bureaucratically slow, reactive rather than proactive, and grounded in outdated policy frameworks that are ill-equipped to handle 21st-century realities like climate volatility, public health crises, technological disruption, terrorism, and economic fragility.
The social sciences, particularly political science, sociology, economics, and public administration, should play a central role in helping society navigate a VUCA world. Yet in Nigeria, these disciplines are severely stunted. Academic institutions still cling to colonial and post-colonial theoretical models that do not reflect the lived complexities of modern Nigerian society. Research is often not policy-driven, interdisciplinary collaboration is minimal, and there is a glaring disconnect between theory and practice. This intellectual stagnation undermines the capacity of the state to respond innovatively and strategically to dynamic societal problems.
One striking example is the country’s response to insecurity. Nigeria faces a volatile security environment, ranging from jihadist insurgencies in the northeast to banditry in the northwest and ethno-religious tensions in the middle belt. Yet responses are largely militarized and simplistic, ignoring the underlying social, economic, and political complexities. The failure to apply a differentiated, systems-thinking approach, one that appreciates the interconnectedness of governance, marginalization, youth unemployment, and rural neglect exemplifies the dangers of not embracing VUCA-informed governance.
Development strategies in a VUCA environment must be holistic, flexible, and deeply rooted in resilience. Nigeria’s development model, however, remains trapped in centralized, top-down planning with little room for adaptation or local innovation. The emphasis is often on physical infrastructure over human capital, and on short-term political gains over long-term sustainability. This explains, in part, why Nigeria remains developmentally fragile despite its vast human and natural resources.
A VUCA-aware development model would emphasize the need to build institutional and community resilience against shocks whether economic, environmental, or political. It would also recognize that solutions must be adaptive and emergent, rather than imposed and uniform. This requires a reorientation in Nigeria’s policy-making culture and a renaissance in the way social scientists are trained, funded, and engaged in national discourse.
Furthermore, ambiguity the final component of VUCA highlights the challenge of making decisions when facts are unclear and interpretations vary. In Nigeria, ambiguity is amplified by poor data systems, weak analytical capacity, and the politicization of truth. Whether it is economic indices, health statistics, or conflict assessments, the absence of credible, real-time data fuels poor decisions and erodes public trust. A vibrant and dynamic social science ecosystem is essential to reduce this ambiguity by generating reliable research, forecasting trends, and informing evidence-based policies.
In conclusion, Nigeria is deeply embedded in a VUCA world, but its governance and academic systems have yet to fully acknowledge or respond to this reality. To navigate the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity of the contemporary global environment, Nigeria must reform both its governance practices and its intellectual infrastructure. The social sciences must be decolonized, revitalized, and linked directly to policy and practice. Only then can the country begin to craft innovative, resilient, and inclusive solutions to its multifaceted problems. Embracing the VUCA framework is not an academic luxury! it is a national imperative.
The author is of the Network for Justice, Kaduna, Nigeria
