Col. Mamadi Doumbouya who seems to have taken charge in Guinea
Those who think Africa has put behind the culture of coups might start going back to the classics on why coups occur. In the past five years or so, no less than three coups have occurred: Gabon, Sudan, and Ethiopia (which didn’t succeed). Then Mali and now Guinea.
It is the regular stuff about the men on horseback, (soldiers) interrupting mainly corrupt and dictatorial regimes, shoving them aside and planting themselves in power.
There seems to be no guarantee against coups as long as there are solders and internal and external interests backing them. In most cases too as in the jubilation on the streets of the capital today, the regimes are so alienated and vulnerable that it doesn’t matter who replaces them and how that is accomplished. Most of them cheated in elections to come to power and their rule have had nothing to offer the majority of the people. It makes a joke of democracy.
Something like the usual sense of relief and jubilation that greets a typical coup on the streets of the capital earlier today
This coup is, however, being viewed as very serious for Guinea and the West African sub-region. Experts are giving two reasons for such claim. One is what is called the regression of the democratic project in Africa while the second is the collapse of the American imposed “democratic regime” in Afghanistan.
Although no one argues that Alpha Conde who has, to all intents and purposes, just been dethroned has been a terrible dictator. What worries critical observers is the plausible sub-regional fallout and the return of military rule in Africa. In fact, the combination of the two reasons is feared to be such that if care is not taken, the sub-region could enter an insecurity phase of anarchical extremes of fascist groups or violent actors trying to impose themselves.
The next few days will certainly witness rejectionist rhetoric from ECOWAS leaders, the African Union and other stakeholders but will all that amount to anything if France, for instance, or any other great power gave a nod to the military officers?
The good news is that ex-president, Alpha Conde is alive. He is even in a position to reject answering a military officer asking him to confirm his state on a global TV channel.
