One African, Nigerian eye in fact, took a look at this graphic from the IMF and asked: No Shift in Africa? Or the Africa shift does not matter?
He says that while China and India shifts are understandable, Indonesia has, in his words, “come from nowhere, to be moving to the 5th largest economy by 2024”. And he asks: Can Nigeria pull the same trick?
Intervention asked another expert African eye what we might make of the above posers. Something like, should we cry or just go to sleep because it is mission impossible?
He responds as follows: No big deal. These are trillion dollar economies. African economies are very small; the largest is Nigeria’s with about $450 billion.
Population and productivity determine GDP growth. If current population trends continue, Africa will account for 40% of the global population by 2100 and 14 of the 26 countries that will have populations of more than 100 million will be in Africa. Some countries like Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa and Ethiopia might join the group with reasonable growth rates.
The situation hasn’t drastically changed in GDP per capita terms. Americans and Europeans will remain wealthier on average than Chinese, Indians and Brazilians for a very long time.
The long and short of the question and the answer is that the global power configuration is being re-shaped. The way it is going, one major part of the world might still not be there at the table of global power very soon. A number of them could make it just as they might not. The ‘maybe club’ is, unfortunately, where Nigeria belongs for now. In that sense, the two different positions might all remind you about what a Nigerian newspaper said some time ago that Nigeria does not only have a long way to go but is making the journey on a road that is not tarred. Recently, Peter Obi, a member of the elite, came up with framing the crisis as one of going to compete in Formula 1 with Molue drivers.
Enveloped in seemingly insoluble crises and with not a single soul among those hungry for power coming out with a manifesto about how Nigeria can get there, those who ask if Nigeria can make it might not be off the mark completely!
But Nigeria can surprise anyone, miraculously stabilizing itself at home and posing the possibility of a phenomenal rise! Up Nigeria!
