The radical moment that appears to have been peaking across Latin America is running the risk of reversal as the grand strategy of re-inserting right wing elements in power gathers momentum. Although the reversal process is not working but rather suffering, from Cuba to Venezuela to Brazil and now Bolivia, a counter-attack is clearly on across the region.
Maduro of Venezuela, Eva Morales of Bolivia until two days ago, Lula da Silva of Brazil who just walked out of imprisonment and one other Latin American leader in solidarity
The strategy of calling election outcomes to question and using that to stir commotion is on in Bolivia, the landlocked country which surprised the Atlantic axis by remaining in the hands of its first indigenous president for nearly a decade and half at a stretch. A product of the most creative radical approach to politics, nobody disagrees that Eva Morales has tremendously transformed Bolivia from what it was when he took over but, like beauty, performance in office is in the eye of the beholder. It would never mean the same thing for both the masses and corporate interests. His grip on power has slipped in the aftermath of the last October elections. The question, however, is whether his ouster is punishment for democratic deviance or paying a price for insubordination to big business and Hegemonic power.
The footsteps of the American Hegemon are clear to critical observers once military commanders were seen on television insisting on the resignation of Morales on the ground that he rigged elections. Only a compromised national military would do that, it is argued. Some sources such as The Washington Post are frank enough to write that “The West’s left-right battle lines run through Brazil”. The same header would be a great fit for the organised crisis in Bolivia.
It is great power succession at work. In other words, the declining Hegemon is putting up a stiff resistance to the in-roads of the rising Hegemon- China. It may be more direct and fierce in Latin America because that is the ‘backyard’ of the declining Hegemon but the geopolitical contest is not restricted there. It is also going on across Europe, Asia and Africa. In Europe and Africa, governments are so well established based on sustainable elite pacts. That means destabilisation campaigns cannot work because nobody will even try to rig elections in much of Europe before any outside power can capitalize on that to stir a stalemate. So, the market is where the fight for global primacy is taking place there. That is, however, not the situation in much of Africa where there are hardly sustainable elite pacts and outside powers can easily use electoral stalemate to stir chaos. In most cases, conservative or confused national militaries serve the purpose of overthrowing one camp or the other. That is what is playing out in Bolivia in the eyes of critical observers.
With Morales now safely in a sanctuary in Mexico which is though strictly not a Latin American but an interested party, he has got a staging point to live to continue his fight. There are other powerful actors such as China and Russia. All other things added, it is not going to be a tea party.
A 2017 picture of the Great-2, the name they have both rejected even though that is what it is on the ground right now across Latin America
The last great power succession was war when Germany challenged Britain which was the status quo power up to early 20th century. The First and Second World War were the outcome, witnessing the replacement of Britain with the United States. It was one Western power succeeding another, meaning that the transition was within one civilisation. Now, it is a completely different ball game. The rising power – China – is of a different civilisational identity. It is also of a different ideological identity although it is not committed to changing the status quo radically.
There are two dominant camps on how the transition will go. The camp of Offensive Realists led by Chicago University’s Political Scientist, Prof John Mearsheimer, are saying there is no going through it without a clash between China and the US. The camp of liberal Internationalism, led by Joseph Nye Snr, another American Political Scientist, are saying that victory today does not require a shooting war between the Hegemons but the victory of one narrative over another. When popular uprising in, say, the Arab World is quickly called Arab Spring, that is what Joseph Nye Snr means. When you call it Arab Spring, you deflect it from being an uprising against exploitative global structures that sustain autocratic regimes to a revolt against those regimes in themselves. So, narratives win wars nowadays.
Who wins the argument is what the world is waiting for. Although Latin American Springs or one such narrative may not be far from coming, Mearsheimer is winning so far because what he said would cause a clash between the Hegemons is partly what is happening EXCEPT that it is happening in Latin America – US trying to push out China by upstaging radical regimes in the region instead of war between US and China arising from China seeking to push out the US as a power in Asia. Is it possible that China’s powerful presence in Latin America shifted the clashing point to America’s backyard as to completely amend Mearsheimer’s text/analysis?
Of course, great powers do not fight each other directly because they will quickly destroy the world. What they do is to test strength using powerless, poor countries in proxy wars, especially where the elite are so divided and the media is either equally divided or too naive. It remains to be seen what eventually happens in Latin America in the current phase.
